Omdia forecasts new highs for recorded-music retail sales, but growth set to slow

LONDON,June 20,2023 -- The global retail value of recorded-music sales is set to register a record high this year when sales will rise 7.8%,to $41bn from $38.1bn in 2022,according to new figures published by Omdia. The research service is expecting annual growth to continue through to 2027,when retail sales will hit $49.8bn.

Global,recorded-music retail sales by individual source,2022-2027

Although a major achievement,it is worth noting that the new record highs are only on a nominal basis. Allowing for inflation means total sales in 1999 would be worth a massive $70bn in 2023. Omdia's figures are made up of consumer spending on physical and digital formats and services plus trade revenue from advertising,performance rights,and synchronization.

Much of the growth this year and beyond will come from subscriptions and streaming. Subscription sales are set to rise 10.1% this year,to $24.4bn and by 2027 spending will top $31bn. Income from digital music advertising is expected to generate more than physical formats for the first time in 2025.

"The dominance of subscriptions and streaming is clear for all to see in these forecasts. More and more consumers are happy to sign up to the likes of Spotify and Apple Music and so retail sales are going to keep on rising. Content and service providers need to remember though that although streaming sales will still be on the up in five years,the global growth rate at the end of the forecast period will be less than half of what it was at the beginning," commented Simon Dyson,Omdia's Senior Principal Analyst,Music,and Digital Audio.

Omdia correctly predicted last year that China would overtake France to take fifth spot in the global ranking in 2022. Now,the research service has forecast that sales in the world's most populous country will exceed both the UK and Germany in 2025,boosting China's global ranking to third. Moreover,retail sales in the country will top the $3bn mark in 2026 with China's share of global retail sales rising to 6.7% the following year. Looking further ahead,Omdia believes that China could take the second spot from Japan as soon as 2030.

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Omdia,part of Informa Tech,is a technology research and advisory group. Our deep knowledge of tech markets combined with our actionable insights empower organizations to make smart growth decisions.

Fasiha Khan fasiha.khan@omdia.com